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Economics for Investors

Economics for investors is a compendium of articles for investors that form the basis for analysis of the stock market.

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Anemic GDP Growth Rate is Not Good Enough
The United States GDP growth rate of 3.2% is insufficient to to overcome high unemployment and underemployment. It only covers those entering the job market for the first time.

Rising Interest Rates and Dollar Revaluation
Rising interest rates and a U.S. dollar revaluation will be one of the dominate investing themes for 2010.

Natural Gas Outlook 2010
The outlook for natural gas remains negative as the supply of the fuel outstrips demand. This situation will remain in place throughout the 2009-2010 heating season, unless the U.S. experiences an extremely cold winter.

Bull or Bear Market - Case for a Bear Market Rally, 9/8/2021
Are we in a bull or bear market? That is the question many are asking with the S&P 500 up 50% from its March 9th low. Here is the case for a bear market rally.

Case for Jobless Growth
The U.S. economy is about to embark on a jobless growth phase that will last for many years.

Debt to GDP Ratio, the Looming US Debt Crisis
The US debt to GDP ratio is reaching worrisome proportions. What indicators tell you the US debt situation is becoming a crisis?

Don't fight the Fed, 10/2/2021
Given that this is still true in today’s environment, what might take place over the next six to twelve months with interest rates, especially the discount rate?

Emerging Markets 2010
Emerging markets will lead the global recovery in 2010.

Global Economic Trends - U. S. Dollar Devaluation
Three important economic trends are causing the U.S. dollar devaluation.

Global Growth Trends - The Shape of the Recovery
If you can be on the right side of global growth trends, your portfolio will thank you. What trends are important for the next five years?

Is the Bond Market Rally Over?
Bond rates have declined for 30 years.  Is the end in falling rates here?  Will bond prices start to climb?

Sovereign Credit Crisis
The sovereign credit crisis in Europe could be the beginning a a longer term malaise that affects the world.

What a Changing Savings and Export Rates Tells Us, 9/4/2021
What can we learn from the insight that the U.S. consumer is saving more and Chinese exports are falling?

Export Investment, 11/09/2021
Export investment offers the best opportunity to take advantage of export biased growth growth in GDP.

Deleverage: What the Deleveraging Process Means for Investors, 7/28/2009. Too much financial leverage is the cause of the current recession. The deleveraging process will continue for longer than most think.

What is up with Oil?, 6/26/2009
Oil has doubled in price and remains in contango.

Recovery in Housing Sector Not Hear Yet, 6/17/2009
The recovery in housing important to the recovery in the economy.

Credit Crisis Causing Bank Credit to Dry Up, 7/25/2008. Credit is the fuel that drives the economy. If you want to beat the market or want to learn to invest, it is important to have a good understanding of how credit affects the economy.

Where is the Truth in Government Numbers? 5/9/2008. If you are learning to invest and wish to beat the market, it pays to dig a little deeper into the headline numbers released by the government.

The State of Consumer Spending, 5/2/2008. The consumer makes up more than 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States. So how goes the consumer, goes the economy.

How Bad Can It Get? 3/08/2008. Those who want to learn to invest and beat the market need to have a prudent perspective on where the state of the economy and where the market might go over the foreseeable future.

Stock Market Valuations are to High, 2/22/2008
What is the current PE ratio of the S&P 500 telling us now and what should investors do about it?

How Bad Can it Get?
Can the 2008 credit problems get worse and bring the market down even further?

What the PE Ratio is Telling Us.
If the PE ratio follows history, it will continue to fall. This will bring stock prices down with it.

Yield Curve and the Stock Market.
What affect will a steeper yield curve have on the stock market?

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