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Emerging Economies Will Continue to Lead the Way

by Hans Wagner

2/32/2010

Emerging markets, especially China, Brazil, India, much of Asia and other parts of Latin America will lead the rest of the world in economic growth. As a multi-year trend, this is continuation of one of the best investing themes from 2009. Demand for commodities such as copper and steel will be critical for this growth. The economic growth of these countries is encouraging the emergence of a new middle class.

For example, the World Bank estimates that the global middle class is likely to grow from 430 million in 2000 to 1.15 billion in 2030. The bank defines the middle class as earners making between $10 and $20 a day, adjusted for local prices. This is roughly the range of average incomes between Brazil ($10) and Italy ($20). South Korea has rebounded from the recession and will once again be a leading economic power in the region.

Asia and Latin America Drive Growth

We are looking for the emerging markets to grow significantly in 2010 with China coming in at 9-10%, India in at 7-8%, Russia and Brazil in the 5% range. This growth comes from government economic stimulus as well as more spending by consumers and business.

In China, economists expect the country's "middle class" will exceed the total population of the United States by 2015. Overtaking the United States, more than 12.7 million cars and trucks will be sold in China this year, up 44 percent from the previous year and surpassing the 10.3 million forecast in the U.S., according to J.D. Power and Associates.

India’s economy has produced a 250 million strong middle class that is just beginning to consumer goods.

For investors, the expansion of the middle class in these countries will spur demand for consumer goods and better food, leading to more trade that encourages exports from the U.S. It also will help multi-national companies that are aligned with these growth waves to see stronger growth.

The commodity, industrial, and energy sectors should benefit as they provide many of the products for the emerging countries. Demand for technology products will increase, especially anything to do with wireless communication.

This demand for commodities will help drive growth in Latin America, especially Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. China has been developing relationships with a number of Latin American countries to help secure long-term access to commodities and agriculture products. This will show up in better than average GDP growth for several Latin American countries.

Finally, helping to drive the value of the emerging markets will be the structural weakness of the developed countries due to their large and growing debt problems. Investors will seek higher returns by moving their capital to countries and companies that have better long-term growth prospects.

Risks from Emerging Markets

As with any investment strategy, it is best to understand the risks you face before making a commitment. That way you can develop appropriate contingency plans and hedges should the risk become reality. Investing in emerging markets involves four risks:

Investing in the emerging markets, offers investors the best opportunities for 2010. Look to the ETFs that concentrate in the emerging market countries mentioned as well as companies that have substantial exposure to these countries.


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